Will President Trump get his Space Force?

As President Trump pushes for the U.S. sixth branch of the military, Space Force, many controversial arguments have been brought forth, one of which is how much it will cost and is there really a need for a sixth military branch?

Back in September, Air Force Secretary Heather Wilson released a memo that identified its proposal to transition its space functions to Space Force. The Air Force has put together an initial cost estimate for the creation and development of Space Force, and projects it to cost $13 billion dollars over the next five years.  However, according to a new report released by Todd Harrison of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, he believes the cost could be far less.

Calculating the Cost of Space Force

According to Todd Harrison, the Defense Department would need between $300-550 million per year, in addition to the money it already budgets for its space personnel, operations, and procurement. This would put the total cost estimate between $1.5 billion and $2.7 billion to construct and maintain Space Force over a five-year period. This is a far cry from the Air Force’s original estimate, which is partly in part because the Air Force’s estimate did not account for services, personnel, and current operations that would simply transfer to Space Force.

It is well known that the U.S. Air Force does not want to lose its portion of their budget for space programs and operations. Given that the U.S. Air Force has made their position clear regarding the need for Space Force, and its impact it would have on the branch, Todd Harrison labeled their initial cost estimate as “malicious compliance,” stating that “they were not asked to produce that cost estimate, and they did it with the largest possible scope, without sufficient caveats to let people know that that was much more than the cost of the Space Force.”

In the Air Force’s defense, Heather Wilson explained that the Air Force’s cost estimate was scoped appropriately to reflect the wishes of President Trump, in order to create a completely independent Space Force. The Air Force’s cost estimate included a stand-alone department as well as a unified combatant command, which is not represented in Harrison’s estimates.

Organizational Structure of Space Force

In Harrison’s estimate, the size and budget for Space Force largely depends on what existing space-related organizations that would be incorporated. Harrison gave three options, which are categorized as a Space Corps within the Department of the Air Force, Space Force-Lite and Space Force-Heavy.

  1. Space Corps:  This would function independently, but would fall under the Air Force. This is a similar concept to how the Marine Corps’ functions under the Department of the Navy. Space Corps would assume all of the Air Force’s space units (14th Air Force), as well as the 21st Space Wing at Patrick AFB, the 50th Space Wing at Schriever AFB, and the 460th Space Wing at Buckley AFB, as well as the Space and Missile Systems Center (SMC) at Los Angeles AFB. According to Harrison’s estimate, this would result in a transfer of approximately 12,100 active duty, 1,600 guard and reserve, and 11,900 civilian personnel from the Air Force. In addition, this option would require about 1,700 new staff that would be needed for headquarters operations.
  2. Space Force-Lite: This option would include everything in “Space Corps,” but would also incorporate the Army 1st Space Brigade, the Navy Program Executive Office Space Systems, and the Space and Naval Warfare Systems Command (SPAWAR). This option would look to transfer approximately 16,700 active duty, 1,900 guard and reserve, and 14,600 civilian personnel from the Air Force, Army, and Navy.  An additional 2,600 new personnel would be needed for headquarters and secretariat functions.
  3. Space Force-Heavy: This option would include everything in the “Space Force-Lite” option, adding the Army’s 100th Missile Defense Brigade that operates Ground-Based Mid-Course Defense (GMD) systems and part of the Missile Defense Agency (MDA). The MDA programs that would be included are related to sensors, tracking, and target discrimination capabilities that are used for space situational awareness and mid-course intercept capabilities. This option also includes a small amount of the Defense Information Systems Agency (DISA) that work on satellite communications. This option would transfer approximately 18,300 active duty, 2,800 guard and reserve, and 24,300 civilian personnel, with an additional 3,100 new personnel needed to run headquarters operations.
Will Space Force become a new military branch?

The real question that everyone is asking is, will Space Force become the 6th branch of the US military? The President has made it well known that Space Force and its creation is a priority that he plans to see executed. With the three above outlined plans, it is clear that the Air Force could likely not be the only one to lose a portion of its budget that has been allocated to space programs and initiatives. This proposal by the President has created a large concern for many of the branches, as they too will lose some of their staff, programs, and commands. Ultimately, Congress is the one that will decide if Space Force will become a new branch of the U.S. military or not. Given that the democrats own majority of the House, a successful passage is a “coin toss,” which will largely be based on the proposal put forward in President Trump’s 2020 budget.

Burdeshaw Associates Outlook on Space Force

After discussing the possibilities of a new Space Command with GEN William Hartzog, USA (Ret.), he believes the two most important questions are:

  1. Does our country need a separate Space Command at this time in its history?
  2. If the decision is to move forward, what should the command’s scope be?

In regards to the first question, our principals believe in order to say yes, the following conditions should be met:

  • USA occupied Space (colonization)
  • Competitive and unaligned countries have newly developed space capabilities
  • The US military continues to depend on freedom of satellite placement for global communications
  • The current US Space development and maintenance functions are not anticipatory, but have become reactionary…

then the decision to have moved forward with a separate space command would have (hopefully) already been made.

Given that very few of the above conditions are not yet in place, the second question, although important, is more hypothetical. Assuming the decision has been made, there are many trade-off examinations to be pursued. A primary question is how the cost of a separate Space Command can be absorbed? The obvious costs that need to be considered (as a minimum), are staffing, infrastructure, and operational costs. The second tier of trade-offs has to do with the efficacy of adding a sixth competitor of major proportions to the budget competition.

While there is no doubt that a Space Command is needed within this countries future, there is not an overwhelming sense of support needed for a “full court” press in the near term for its immediate development. The Air Force space command is a growing capability that could handle the nations growing needs for development of its capabilities and responsibilities in space as they mature.

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