The United States Nuclear Revitalization: Modernizing the Nuclear Triad
On January 27, 2017, the President of the United States, directed the Department of Defense (DoD) to initiate and conduct a Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which was released February, 2018, as part of the U.S. Nuclear Triad modernization efforts. The purpose of this effort is “to ensure the safety and security of the homeland, its allies, and to serve as a nuclear deterrent against its adversaries.” The escalating tensions between the U.S., Russia, China, and North Korea revolving around nuclear weapons and the possibility of their use in the near future, has created an immediate sense of urgency for the revitalization and modernization of the U.S. Nuclear Triad.
In 1991, the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (START) was put into place, setting a ceiling of 6,000 accountable strategic nuclear warheads. During the early 1990s, the United States reduced their nuclear weapons stockpile by more than 85 percent from its Cold War high. Russia initially followed America’s lead and made dramatic reductions in its strategic nuclear forces. However, Russia has since been adopting new military strategies, which consist of an “escalate to de-escalate” doctrine, modeled after the Soviet Union. The irrational and miscalculated Russian nuclear escalation theory, along with their seizure of Crimea and nuclear threats against U.S. allies, has proven to be a promising threat to cause concern of potential nuclear warfare.
China has also begun to escalate the potential for nuclear warfare concern with their progressive pursuit of entirely new nuclear capabilities and their modernization of their conventional military. Additionally, China has begun to make increasingly aggressive strides towards space advancement, which has forced the Pentagon to respond by augmenting its space systems. President Trump brought recognition to U.S. concern in a public speech he gave on March 13, 2018, presenting a new military branch called “Space Force.” He again reiterated this on May 1, 2018. The advancement the U.S. plans to make can be clearly seen in the FY 2019 Air Force budget, with a nearly 20 percent ($7 billion) increase in the Space Budget from FY 2017.
Secretary of Defense, Jim Mattis, stated in the NPR, “we must look reality in the eye and see the world as it is, not as we wish it to be. This NPR reflects the current, pragmatic assessment of the threats we face and the uncertainties regarding the future security environment.”
As stated in the 2018 NPR, “U.S. nuclear capabilities make essential contributions to the deterrence of nuclear and non-nuclear aggression. The deterrence effects they provide are unique and essential to preventing adversary nuclear attacks, which is the highest priority of the United States.”
U.S. Nuclear Roles in National Security Strategy:
- Deterrence of nuclear and non-nuclear attack
- Assurance of allies and partners
- Achievement of U.S. objectives if deterrence fails
- Capacity to hedge against uncertain future
Cost Associated with Modernizing U.S. Nuclear Triad
Congressional Budget Office published a major report in October, 2017, (Approaches for Managing the Costs of U.S. Nuclear Forces, 2017 to 2046), which estimates the nuclear weapons spending plan President Donald Trump inherited from his predecessor will cost tax payers $1.3 trillion between fiscal years 2017 and 2046. According to a projection by the Arms Control Association, when the effects of inflation are included, the 30-year cost would approach $1.7 trillion.
President Trump plans to continue with the plan that was established prior to his election, by the Obama administration, as well as develop new nuclear capabilities, which will increase the overall costs associated with the latest modernization transition. As part of the new nuclear capabilities, in response to Russia’s escalate to de-escalate doctrine, the U.S. plans to add a near-term development of a low-yield submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and the longer-term development of new nuclear submarine-launched cruise missile (SLCM). These low-yield SLBM and SLCM will not require or rely on host nation support to provide deterrent effect.
In a recent report posted May 3, 2018, by Inside Defense, Senate Armed Services Committee Ranking Jack Reed, (D-RI) was quoted saying, “the Russian doctrine of ‘escalate to de-escalate’ could easily spin out of control if our response to their low-yield weapon is to use a similar one, which could escalate into an exchange of larger weapons. We have to devote considerable effort to wargaming this problem and ensure that existing systems, both conventional and nuclear, cannot meet this doctrinal challenge of ‘escalate to de-escalate.’”
Affordability
Burdeshaw Associates recently asked one of its Senior Principals, Lieutenant General Gary Trexler, USAF (Ret.), if the U.S. could afford to spend over $1.3 trillion on modernizing its nuclear capabilities and revitalizing its nuclear command, control and communications (NC3), to which he replied…
“For safety, surety and mission effectiveness, the TRIAD must be modernized. Sustainment and modernization has been neglected for decades. Whether $1.3 T is the correct number, is debatable. That said, if it takes that much, then that is what should be committed. It’s the price one pays for freedom. Also, when a mission area is neglected, then it takes money to fix it… that’s the price one pays for neglect.”
The question isn’t really can we afford a 1.3 trillion-dollar revitalization of our nuclear deterrent, the real question is can we afford not to? The United States has been and continues to be the worlds largest deterrent for a nuclear catastrophic event.
Revitalization and Modernization Plan
Today, the strategic nuclear triad consists of: submarines (SSBNs) which are armed with submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBM); land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs); and strategic bombers that carry gravity bombs and air-launched cruise missiles (ALCMs). Currently the U.S. operates 14 OHIO-class SSBNs. However, as reported in the 2018 NPR, The COLUMBIA program is planning on delivering a minimum of 12 SSBNs to replace the current OHIO fleet.
The ICBM force of 400 single-warhead Minuteman III missiles are looking to be replaced by the United States Ground-Based Strategic Deterrent (BGSD) program, which is planning replacement in 2029. The GBSD program will also include a modernized version of the 450 ICBM launch facilities in order to support the current 400 ICBMs.
AS part of the U.S. strategy to upgrade the bomber portion of the triad, currently it consists of 46 nuclear-capable B-52H and 20 nuclear-capable B-2A “stealth” strategic bombers. As part of the modernization, the U.S. has begun a program to develop and deploy the next-generation bomber, the B-21 Raider. The plan first initiates the B-21 Raider into the current fleet bombers, while eventually replacing them in the mid-2020’s.
According to the 2018 NPR, the B-52H bombers were first equipped with ALCMs back in 1982. However, these have past their design life period by over 25 years, which causes a great concern due to the continuously improving adversary air defense systems. As an example, Russia first revealed their new design for a sixth-generation fighter aircraft back in March of 2016. The rapid push forward in advanced weaponry and aircraft fighters from adversaries raises concerns about the sustainability of the U.S. Nuclear Triad facilities and ability to outperform these advancements.
In addition to supporting the current non-strategic nuclear force, which consists of a relatively small number of B61 gravity bombs carried by the F-15E and allied dual capable aircraft (DCA), the U.S. is planning to incorporate a nuclear capability to the F-35. By adding a nuclear-capable F-35 to the nuclear triad, this will bring a new dimension to U.S. nuclear attack options and place an increased pressure against the advancing technology push of its potential adversaries.
Nuclear deterrence has been and continues to be the highest priority of the Department of Defense. The most recent NPR has really raised awareness to the current state of the U.S. Nuclear Triad and has outlined significant strategies for its revival and modernization. Though the price tag seems steep, sitting at an estimated 1.7 trillion-dollars, the NPR states that the increased spending during its peak of performance will only account for 6.7 percent of the DoD budget. Currently the maintenance and operation of today’s costs associated with the Nuclear Triad only account for three percent of the DoD budget. When you look at these numbers in conjunction with the projected costs to revitalize the nuclear forces, the additional 3 percent is well worth the cost of reassurance and increased nuclear deterrence from advancing potential adversaries.
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